Sports Betting Tips
by A. Aguilar
Sports' gambling has much more to do with mathematics than with guessing how a particular match will end. Dominating statistical concepts such as probability, percentages, series, etc. makes it much easier for us to become good gamblers and to have a good profit continuously, not just as the result of blind luck.
There are many strategies to follow, some with better results than others, but the ultimate strategy to make us into millionaires doesn't exist. If someone ever gets one, the gambling houses would probably detect it and create an impediment to its use. They have techniques to control winning strategies, such as changing the odds markets or outright removing them at the sight of mid-term losses. A good betting tactic is one that combines an automatic element that regardless of the game we have in our hands could always be repeated, with a human-dependant one, which uses our perception, intuition and knowledge to discard some games to boost profits as well.
For example, we design a strategy in which we prepare a software (or a simple spreadsheet) in which we are adding the number of goals a football team has scored in every game for the past 5 years, distinguishing when they have played locally or as visitor. Each time, the software will make operations, averages, etc. to see what games are more likely to end up with Over 2.5 goals, and if the odds are worth it, go for them; that is the automatic. The human element would the come into play: Sevilla - Real Madrid; the software has told us that it tends to go Over 2.5 and the odds are worth it and that you should bet on them. But we have learned that this morning there has been some injured in the starting forwards of both teams and that several alternate offensive players have been punished. In this case, it would be inappropriate to bet on the Over 2.5 odds, because circumstances have led the trend to end up with fewer goals.
This strategy is only an example, as the bookmakers have very powerful statistical tools used to place bets odds for their markets, and a strategy based solely on statistics can't do much against a gambling house with all their resources. The best sportsbooks have a lot of employees, many of them with enough knowledge to control all the statistical aspects of gambling. So what we strongly recommend is to invest the time in the development of a strategy that best suits your gaming style, while using all the other systems as just a reference to your own.
